Election 2024: 10 California Congressional races to watch

Despite its reputation as a liberal bastion, California is in the crosshairs of both Democrat and Republican parties this year, as the state lines up to hold what could be the most decisive U.S. House races in the country.

Following 2022 mid-term elections that delivered a GOP House majority and launched Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy into his ill-fated speakership, several districts could act as lynchpins in either maintaining that control, or hastening its collapse in this election cycle.

Nonpartisan elections tracker The Cook Political Report this week released its latest assessment of all 435 House elections in 2024, featuring 10 California races considered competitive or potentially competitive. Four contests in particular are expected to be horse races that could swing red or blue. They are all currently Republican-held, often by a thin margin in the last elections, and encompass swaths of the state that tend to go Democratic.

These toss-up races are:

• Congressional District 13, with incumbent Rep. John Duarte
• Congressional District 22, with incumbent Rep. David Valadao
• Congressional District 27, with incumbent Rep. Mike Garcia
• Congressional District 41, with incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert

Several of these congressional district boundaries are different this year after major redistricting in 2022. Voters can see a detailed map at wedrawthelines.ca.gov. Further underscoring volatility in these regions are a handful of Republican congressman representing districts that President Joe Biden carried in 2020.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, the arm of the party devoted to House races, has long had three California seats at the top of their "target list" they hope to flip. They are:

• Congressional District 9, defended by Democratic Rep. Josh Harder
• Congressional District 47, which is open following Democratic Rep. Katie Porter's jump into the California Senate race
• Congressional District 49, defended by Rep. Mark Levin, also a Democrat

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Committee is eyeing more than twice as many Republican-held seats they are working to turn blue, as part of their larger strategy to wrestle back control of the House. They are:

• Congressional District 3, held by Rep. Kevin Kiley
• Congressional District 22, held by Rep. by David Valadao
• Congressional District 27, held by Rep. Mike Garcia
• Congressional District 40, held by Rep. Young Kim
• Congressional District 41, held by Rep. Ken Calvert
• Congressional District 45, held by Rep. Michelle Steel

Porter's open seat is also in play for Democrats, making it one of the top races to watch this year as both parties battle for control.

Republicans currently hold a slim House majority of 219-213, including three vacancies, giving Democrats a chance to take over with a net gain of five seats.

But with McCarthy no longer in Congress, questions linger over the ripple effects of his exit among the California GOP. McCarthy was a top fundraiser, drawing in millions for his party, and his absence from the election field this year may significantly impact the party's coffers.

A special election for his seat in Republican-dominated 20th district is set for this year's primary and general election races.

Four most-competitive races

13th Congressional District

Where: Merced and areas of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties

Republican Rep. John Duarte is set for a rematch against Democrat challenger Adam Gray. It was the nation's second-closest race in 2022 midterms, handing Duarte a win by less than 600 votes. The district carried Biden on the 2020 ticket, and has more registered Democrats than Republicans.

22nd Congressional District

Where: Sections of Kings, Tulare and Kern counties, including cities Delano and Tulare

Republican David Valadao narrowly won his seat in 2022, marking a comeback to Congress after he lost in 2018. Known as one of 10 Republicans to vote for impeachment of former President Donald Trump in the wake of the Jan. 6 insurrection. Valadao is facing a race against Democratic State Assemblymember Rudy Salas, Democratic State Sen, Melissa Hurtado, and Republican rancher and businessman Chris Mathys.

27th Congressional District

Where: Northern Los Angeles County, including Santa Clarita and upper Los Angeles

Another toss-up district, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia is defending his seat from Democratic former head of space-tourism company Virgin Galactic, George Whitesides. Garcia defeated his Democratic challenger in 2022 by a little over 6 points, but with Whitesides stepping in the race will be harder to predict. Democratic businessman Steve Hill will also be on the ballot.

41st Congressional District

Where: Riverside County

Whereas the other two toss-up races feature relative newcomers, who assumed office within the last few years, California's 41st has been governed by Republican Rep. Ken Calvert for nearly 30 years. The veteran incumbent is likely to be challenged by a familiar face, Democrat Will Rollins, in a rematch of the 2022 race, and Democrat Nurse Anna Nevenic.

Two competitive races with one party advantage

45th Congressional District:

Where: Parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties

Republican Rep. Michelle Steel won this seat by nearly 5 points in 2022, and is facing four registered Democratic challengers; Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Bernice Nguyen-Penaloza, policy analyst Cheyenne Hunt, attorney Aditya Pai and workers' rights advocate Derek Tran. Yet following redistricting, Steel now represents parts of the state that voted handily for Biden in 2020, which could affect her ability to maintain control.

The 47th Congressional District:

Where: Parts of Orange County, including Irvine and sections of Anaheim

California's 47th is one of two open seats this year, the other vacated by McCarthy, attracting 10 hopefuls ahead of the March 5 top-two primary. Rep. Katie Porter took the seat in 2018, and in her last election beat her Republican challenger by a little over 3 points.

Four races that seem safe but could heat up

The 3rd Congressional District:

Where: Along the Nevada border, including Plumas, Sierra, Nevada, Placer, Alpine, Mono, and Inyo, counties, as well as parts of Yuba, El Dorado, and Sacramento counties

Another district to change shape since redistricting, the 3rd district is the most geographically diverse in the state. Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley is considered likely to grab this new seat, despite the county leaning Democratic by roughly 5 points. Democrat Jessica Morse and No Party Preference Robert Smith are registered challengers.

The 9th Congressional District:

Where:  San Joaquin County and parts of Contra Costa and Sacramento counties

It's expected Democrats will remain in control of the 9th district, with Rep. Josh Harder running for reelection against three Republican challengers; Businessman Khalid Jeffrey Jafri, Coach John McBride and Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln.

The 40th Congressional District:

Where: Sections of Orange, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties

Republican Rep. Young Kim, the first Korean American to be elected in a Republican House seat, could win against a Democrat again this year. Tustin District School Board member Allyson Muñiz Damikolas and retired firefighter captain Joe Kerr are the two Democrats aiming to unseat Kim in 2024.

The 49th Congressional District:

Where: Northern San Diego and southern Orange counties, including San Clemente and Oceanside

Election trackers predict Democrat Mark Levin will hold on to his seat, after defeating Republican Brian Maryott in 2022 by more than 5 points. Four Republicans, all businesspeople, are in the running this year; Sheryl Adams, Matt Gunderson, Kate Monroe and Margarita Wilkinson.