Geography. Last election, redistricting made CA-41 one of the most competitive congressional districts in the country — and the district is trending more blue. As recently as March of 2022, Republicans held a voter registration advantage (-264). Now, as of the April 25th voter registration update, Democrats hold a voter registration advantage (+3,183). In 2016, President Trump won the district by 4-points with 50.6%, and in 2020, he only won it by 1-point with 49.6%. With recent voter registration changes, it’s highly likely that CA-41 is a Biden district in 2024.- National Attention. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already named CA-41 as one of its initial 33 targets for 2024. Additionally, House Majority PAC announced a $35 million California Battleground Fund, stating that “a Democratic resurgence in California represents one of House Democrats’ best paths back to the Majority.”
- 2022 Overperformance. According to independent reporting from data-expert David Shor, Will Rollins was the 3rd most over-performing Democratic challenger in the nation in 2022. And according to independent reporting from California analyst Vance Ulrich, Rollins was the only Democratic challenger in the state to win the vote from “No Party Preference” voters.
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