Strategic overview with less than 60 days until Election Day.

State of the Race in California’s 41st District

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Matt Gaze, Campaign Manager

Please take a moment to read this strategic overview of our race directly from HQ. The goal here is to make sure you’re equipped with the most up-to-date information about our campaign, and explain why investing in our race is the best use of your resources.

Our polling is strong

A Tulchin Research poll conducted in our race shows us in a virtual dead heat with Ken Calvert. Right now, Will stands at 42% with Calvert at 41%. Roughly 17% are undecided. What’s even more encouraging is that we lead by 6-points among voters listed as having no-party preference. This indicates that we have room to grow in these final 8 weeks.

Here’s an informative article that expands on these points: https://thewelcomeparty.substack.com/p/a-centrist-insurgency-of-sorts

Democrats now outnumber Republicans in CA-41

CA-41 saw a +7 Democratic registration bump after redistricting, and since January, Republicans have lost registrants while Democrats gained nearly 2,000. Results from the June primary showed that a majority of local voters rejected Ken Calvert, and for the first time in over a decade his earned vote share fell below 50%. After ballots were counted, Will became *the only* Democratic challenger in California to see an improved race rating from The Cook Political Report.

Here’s a great read about how redistricting has improved our chances: https://www.peoplesworld.org/article/will-rollins-flip-californias-newly-redistricted-cd-41/

Calvert’s anti-LGBTQ past is coming back to haunt him

This is a big one. Calvert is in the uncomfortable position of having one of the worst, anti-LGBTQ records in Congress while running to represent Palm Springs — one of the most LGBTQ-friendly cities in the country. As an openly gay prosecutor, the contrast between Will and Calvert is so stark that our race was recently highlighted in The LA Times and The New York Times. Local activists are fired up, which has been a huge boon to our get-out-the-vote efforts.

MSNBC segment explains how we can win this race by at least 2 points

Our race is listed on the House Democrats’ “Red to Blue” program (which is reserved for strong candidates running in critical districts that we must hold to keep House control). MSNBC reported on a new study showing that we can flip this seat, but it depends on donors shifting their focus on our race. Watch the clip here.

Rollins MSNBC
The study highlighted in this MSNBC segment puts it best: “If properly funded, this is the sort of race that could swing to the Democrats.” As one of Will’s top supporters, I want to be transparent about the fact that we are currently being out-raised by Ken Calvert. In addition, we’ve just made a competitive TV buy that has made the need for resources even more urgent.

If you can, please make a contribution to our campaign today. This is shaping up to be one of the most consequential races in the country, and every dollar in the homestretch will make a difference.

If you have any questions, please respond to this email directly and someone from our team will be in touch.

Thanks for your support,

Matt Gaze
Campaign Manager

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Update: CA-41 is considered a "MUST WIN" district for Democrats to keep the Majority. Chip in today >>
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